Can A-shares usher in a turning point in April?Institution: The worst time has passed

Can A-shares usher in a turning point in April?Institution: The worst time has passed
A-shares gapped lower and opened weaker on Monday, and the index rebounded in the afternoon to narrow the decline.The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.9% reported to 2747.21 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.03% reported to 9904.95 points; GEM index fell 2.28% reported to 1860.48 o’clock.Agricultural stocks are strong throughout the day, and many stocks in the sector have reached daily limits. The main military concept of China Shipbuilding has surged in the afternoon, the UHV concept has been in the afternoon, and the semiconductor concept has rebounded in early trading.Under a large-scale stimulus policy, will A shares be able to usher in a turning point at the bottom in April?Some organizations believe that the worst time for the market has passed.A favorable package of policies catalyzes the market to review the stock market last week, ending last Friday’s closing, and the Shanghai Composite Index gradually increased to 0.97%, GEM refers to a gradual increase of 1.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index gradually decreased to 0.40%.Intensive consensus and implementation of the “anti-epidemic” policy in major countries around the world. The surrounding markets experienced a strong change in the previous period and generally rebounded strongly last week.Last Friday, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze the prevention and control and economic operation plans of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic at home and abroad, and to study and deploy to further coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development.The meeting called for an urgent study to propose a package of macro-policy measures. Active fiscal policies should be more proactive and prudent. Stable monetary policies should be more flexible and appropriate. Properly increase the fiscal deficit rate, issue special government bonds, increase the size of local government special bonds, and guide loan market interest rates.Downside, to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.A signal from the Politburo meeting?CICC analysts believe that the minutes of the Politburo meeting show that the government has begun to re-evaluate the impact of the epidemic on the economy, especially the depth and durability of the impact of overseas epidemics on the economy.Based on the latest understanding of the impact of the epidemic, the policy more clearly stated that it will increase its efforts to ease the difficulties.Unlike in 2008, the current relief is mainly based on fiscal expansion, and the expansion of domestic demand is mainly focused on investment and consumption related to people’s livelihood.The scope of its tools may be wider than what the Politburo meeting clearly proposed-including expanding government financing, tax reduction, revitalizing fiscal savings, and releasing consumer demand.The breakthrough also requires that we continue to unleash the potential for reform to promote the reduction of real interest rates on loans, and guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, and private enterprises.On the overseas front, various countries have moved to stimulate the economy.The Fed, which was the most radical in this crisis, played a series of moves and urgently announced a 100 basis point cut to 0-0.25% level, unlimited QE, emergency tools established to support the credit market, expansion of liquidity swaps with foreign countries, and plans to provide loans directly to US companies.The highest amount in Europe also injects liquidity into the market through additional long-term reverse repurchase operations; further reducing loan interest rates; relaxing mortgage policies; and adding an additional 870 billion euros in asset purchases (the size is equivalent to 7.).3%), including commercial paper from non-financial institutions.In the highest aspect of the UK, on March 11 and March 20, the UK extended interest rate cuts by 50bp and 15bp respectively, and the current interest rate is 0.10%; QE scale expanded from 200 billion pounds to 645 billion pounds.At the emergency policy meeting on March 16, the Bank of Japan also promoted corporate financing by increasing the annual purchase of 2 trillion yen in commercial paper and corporate bonds, and increased the purchase of ETFs and J-REITs to the upper limit (60,000Billion yen and 90 billion yen).In addition, France, Victoria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and many other countries have also introduced fiscal stimulus plans.Institution: A-shares ushered in the bottom inflection point in April. The domestic epidemic situation is coming to an end. With the introduction of national policies to rescue the market, will the market turn around in April?Qin Peijing, chief analyst of CITIC Securities’ A-share strategy, believes that the recent global liquidity turning point signal has emerged. At the same time, it is expected that the financial stimulus of various countries will prevent the global economic growth from gradually evolving into a global economic crisis.The inflow of merged industrial capital into the city is the most important supporting force at the bottom. The policy stimulus package launched in mid-April will form a catalyst, and the stock market will usher in a turning point at the bottom and start growth in the second quarter.In terms of configuration, the old and new infrastructure and related technology leaders (5G, cloud computing, IDC, etc.) are still the long-term main line.Southwest Securities strategic analyst Zhu Bin made it clear that the worst of the market has passed.The long and short factors are undergoing subtle changes, and the positive factors are gradually overlapping.The worst of the market has passed, and it is shifting in a positive direction.Standing at the current time, the market should no longer be pessimistic.Anxin Securities Strategy Chen Guo team pointed out that this week, with the successive introduction of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market has gradually decayed the liquidity risk; for the A-share market, the market as a whole has reached the bottom of history, and the strategy should be optimistic.It is currently in a transition period in a bull market.However, there are analysts who are relatively cautious.Dang Chongyu, chief economist team of Founder Securities, pointed out that at the same time as favorable policy stimulus, there are also negative factors in the stock market. From an international perspective, the current epidemic is spreading globally and has not been stopped, affecting the order of Chinese export companies and the risk appetite of financial markets;Domestically, the economic data to be disclosed in April and the earnings data of listed companies will have a double suppression on the stock market.After the macro-policy hedges the losses, the stock market is positive and negative, or there will be shocks.Dang Chongyu estimated that the A-share Shanghai Composite Index will enter a U-shaped bottom shock, but the U-shaped is not completely ruled. It is expected that the economy will gradually resume growth after the epidemic and complete the economic goals. The overall A-share market in the second half of the year is expected to be better than the first half.Therefore, the U-shape may be inclined to the upper right; the current stock market is positive and bearish. For the shock market in the U-shape bottom, if the favorable strength exceeds expectations, the shock will rise upwards, otherwise a rebound will fall back under the influence of bearishness.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Siyuan Editor Sun Yong Li Weijia Proofreading Liu Baoqing